OTB #86: Sometimes Shit Happens: A Story About Luck in Poker

In the film Forrest Gump, there’s a famous scene where Forrest, played by Tom Hanks, accidentally runs through a big pile of dog shit.

Bumper Sticker Guy: "Man, you just ran through a big pile of dog shit!"

Forrest: "It happens."

Bumper Sticker Guy: "What, shit?"

Forrest: "Sometimes."

Sometimes, shit happens.

In poker, it happens all the time.

Bad beats, coolers, stone bubbles.

It’s part of the game — and if you can't accept it, tournament poker will drive you insane.

But here's the thing most players don't realise: Sometimes, the shit misses you. And you don't even see it.

The Invisible Luck That Won Me A SCOOP

When I won a SCOOP title, there was one hand that could’ve ended my run—and I wouldn’t have even realised how lucky I was.

We were down to about 75 players.

I had 23 big blinds on the button and raised with AQo.

The small blind had 26bb and just called with pocket sixes (66).

The big blind called as well with Jc4c.

Here’s the thing: The small blind is supposed to 3-bet or 3-bet shove here.

If they had jammed, the big blind folds, and I call. AQo vs 66 for my tournament life.

Instead, because they just called, we all saw a flop of T♠6♣4♣.

The small blind and big blind got all-in (middle set vs flush draw), and I folded.

I survived—not by making some sick play, but because my opponent made a mistake.

I got lucky in a way that's completely invisible on the surface.

And this made me realise something crucial about poker psychology...

Why Most Players Only See the Bad Beats

Our brains are wired for negativity.

We remember every bad river, every bubble bustout, every brutal cooler.

But we forget — or never even notice — the good luck that saves us:

• The times opponents misplay their hands against us

• The times we dodge a cooler because of tiny deviations

• The flips we win that feel "standard", but are absolutely crucial

Luck flows both ways.

But because we only feel the pain, we massively underestimate how much luck is working for us too.

What You Actually Control

You can’t control when the dog shit shows up.

But you can control whether you're wearing good shoes.

In poker, that means focusing on the things you can influence:

• Your execution under pressure

• Your study habits and preparation

• Your mental game and emotional resilience

• How well-rested and focused you are when you play

You don't control the deck.

You don't control who wakes up with Aces.

You control you.

The more you anchor yourself in your process instead of your outcomes, the more consistent (and less miserable) your poker journey will be.

For instance, choosing to step away when you're tired rather than pushing through can improve your ROI more than any technical skill.

If You Want More Control, Start Here

If you're a part-time player trying to navigate tournaments around a full-time job, you don't have endless hours to waste on tilt and bad beats.

You need to squeeze maximum edge out of the time and opportunities you do have.

That’s exactly why I created Late Reg Mastery — a 2-day workshop that I recorded at the start of April that will transform the concept of late registration into a practical, actionable strategy that you can implement immediately.

If you're ready to master the complete strategic approach to late registration—including the exact hands to shove, 3-bet jam, and defend, plus the critical postflop plays most players miss—then click here to sign up.

Because sometimes shit happens.

But the rest of the time? That's up to you.

That's all for this week.

See you next time.