OTB #085: The Myth That Shortstacks Have Nothing To Lose

If you’re a part-time poker player trying to squeeze as much value as possible out of your time at the table, you’ve likely come across this common belief:

Short stacks have lower risk premiums because they don’t have much tournament equity to begin with, so they risk less when clashing with other stacks.

On the surface, this seems logical.

But in practice, it’s flat-out wrong...

Wrong, wrong, wrong!

Let me explain...

The Truth About Short Stack Risk Premiums

While it’s true that short stacks have very low risk premiums early in a tournament, this changes dramatically as the tournament progresses.

Let's take a look at an example...

Late registration is over, 50% of the field remains and the average stack is just 20bb.

It folds to the Button who shoves for 12bb.

The SB, who has 14bb, folds and the action is on you with 1bb in front of you (your Big Blind) and 3bb in your stack. So you started the hand with 4bb.

You risk premium in this example is just 0.1% against the Button:

Risk premium is the extra equity you need to be able to realise to make the call.

So in this example you can see in the middle of the table above you need 31.6% equity. You need an additional 0.1% equity with 50% of the field remaining, which means you need 31.7% equity to make the call.

So if you have a hand that has 31.7% equity against the Button's shoving range, you should call. If you don't, then you should fold.

Here's the calling range at 50% remaining against a BTN shoving 26.5% of hands:

Pretty damn wide.

At 25% of the field remaining, your risk premium jumps to 2.4% so now your hand needs 34% equity.

Against a BTN shoving 19.9% of hands, here's the calling range:

It's starting to get a bit tighter.

At 18%, it ramps up to 5.4% so now you need 37% equity and a much stronger caller range.

By the time 16% of the field is left, it reaches 9.3% so you need 40.9% equity.

And on the direct bubble it sky rockets to a whopping 16%. That means you now need 47.6% equity.

Exactly the same stack distribution, but different stages of the tournament.

Here's the calling range on the direct bubble against a BTN shoving 26% of hands:

A stark difference compared to 50% of the field remaining, right?

This just illustrates why short stacks face such unique challenges in the late stages of a tournament.

The closer you get to the money, the greater the pressure to avoid unnecessary risks—because every decision could make or break your tournament.

Your Short Stack Strategy Needs to Evolve

This leads us to an often-overlooked point: Your strategy as a short stack needs to change significantly as the tournament progresses.

At the end of the registration period, with roughly 50% of the field remaining, your risk premium is minimal.

This means you can afford to play a wider range of hands aggressively, taking calculated risks to rebuild your stack.

However, as you get closer to the bubble—when the risk premium for short stacks starts ramping up—you need to become much more selective and precise with your decisions. Understanding when to shove, when to call, and when to fold becomes critical to surviving and maximising your ROI.

The Key to Mastering Short Stack Play

Mastering short stack strategy, especially after late registration closes, requires more than just a basic understanding of push/fold charts. You need to know how to:

• Adjust to changing risk premiums

• Navigate postflop spots effectively with limited chips

• Exploit weaker players who don’t understand the nuances of ICM

  
  

If you’re not confident in your ability to adapt, you could be leaving significant money on the table.

Transform Your Short Stack Play with My Late-Reg Workshop

To help part-time poker players like you bridge this gap, I’m running a 2-day Late Reg Mastery Workshop on April 2–3, 2025, at 6pm UK time.

This workshop is designed to teach you everything you need to dominate the late-registration phase of tournaments, including:

Day 1: Preflop Strategies for Late Reg Success

• Big Blind defence and adjustments

• ICM and risk premium considerations

• Raise First In (RFI) and push/fold ranges

• Responding to opens with shoves, calls or folds

  
  

Day 2: Postflop Mastery with a Short Stack

• How to handle c-bets and donk bet correctly

• Spotting profitable bluffing opportunities with a small stack

• Making smart decisions on the turn and river with just a few big blinds

  
  

By the end of the workshop, you’ll have a clear, actionable blueprint to crush the late-reg phase and maximise your ROI.

If you’ve ever felt unsure about how to approach short stack play as late reg closes, this workshop will provide you with the confidence and strategies to thrive.

Secure Your Spot Now

That's it for this week.

See you next time.