Variance is the natural ups and downs in your short-term results caused by the inherent unpredictability, or luck, of poker.
You can play perfectly and still lose because of bad beats or runouts.
For tournament players, variance is magnified due to the “winner-takes-most” structure.
As a part-time player, variance can feel more severe because your sample size is often smaller compared to professionals. Fewer tournaments mean longer stretches without a big score, and that can test your patience and bankroll.
The good news?
You can take control of variance by understanding and managing its key drivers:
Volume
Return on investment (ROI)
Number of players in the tournament
So today I'm going to show you how volume, ROI, and field size affect variance and provide actionable tips to help you thrive as a part-time tournament player.
Let's dive in...
What are your options?
If you want to reduce variance you have a few options:
1. Grind more
2. Play smaller fields
3. Get better at the game
Increasing Volume as a Part-Time Player
Let's say you can play 50 MTTs per month. You have an ROI of 20% and play an average buy-in (ABI) of $22 with an average field size (AFS) of 1,000 runners.
Your expected return would be $220 and yet over that 50 tournament sample you could brick almost everything and lose $1,005 or make a couple of podium finishes and win $6,482. Most of the time you land somewhere in between.
The range of results over a small sample is wild. Despite having a 20% ROI, your ROI over 50 games could be anywhere between -91% and +589%:
Calculations from https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
Playing more tournaments is the simplest way to reduce the impact of short-term variance.
Over a larger sample size, results tend to converge towards their expected value, whether that's positive or negative.
This is what a 10k sample size looks like with the same 20% ROI and 1k runner fields:
Calculations from https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
Increasing volume while balancing your other commitments can be a challenge—but it's not impossible.
Here are some tips to boost your volume efficiently:
Play Online Poker: Online tournaments offer smaller buy-ins, faster structures, and the ability to multi-table. You can squeeze in more games in less time.
Schedule Your Playing Time Time: Dedicate specific days or hours for poker—consistency will lead to more volume.
Up Your Table Count: Start by adding one additional table at a time, ensuring you don’t sacrifice focus or the quality of your decision-making. The more tables you can play, the more volume you can get in.
Even with a busy schedule, these strategies can help you play more tournaments and reduce variance.
Play Smaller Fields
Field size has a significant impact on variance.
Larger fields provide higher potential ROIs because they attract weaker players and have bigger prize pools, but they also come with more variance due to the lower probability of running deep.
Conversely, smaller fields reduce variance, but often result in lower ROIs since the payouts are much smaller relative to the buy-in and don't always attract weaker players.
For part-time players, smaller or mid-sized fields strike the perfect balance between reducing variance and maintaining a decent ROI.
By focusing on tournaments with manageable field sizes, you can reduce variance while still achieving your goals.
Here's a 10k game sample with a 20% ROI at $22 ABI with a field size of 100 runners:
Calculations from https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
Compare this to the diagram above and you'll see how the spread of results and the variance is much lower.
Admittedly it's still over a 10k game sample which is very tough for a part-time player to achieve over a year, but you should be able to start to see the effect of playing smaller fields.
Having said that, if you're a 20% ROI player in a 1k-runner field, you might only be a 10% ROI player in a 100-runner field.
Which brings us on to my final recommendation: improving your game...
Get better and increase your ROI
Your return on investment (ROI)—the measure of profit you make per dollar invested—directly influences your ability to overcome variance.
A higher ROI means you’re making better decisions, increasing your edge over your opponents and smoothing out the natural swings of tournament poker.
Over time, skill and strategy improvements lead to a higher ROI and, consequently, less variance.
Here's a 50% ROI player playing a $22 ABI with a 100 AFS over 10k games for comparison:
Calculations from https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
So how do you increase your ROI?
Here are 4 ways:
Study the Game: Allocate time to identify and fix your leaks, review hand histories, watch training videos, or drill spots.
Focus on Weak Fields: Look for games with weaker players where your edge is greater.
Play Exploitatively: Pay attention to field tendencies, especially in lower buy-in tournaments, and adjust your play accordingly.
Invest in Coaching: If feasible, hire a coach or join a coaching programme to accelerate your improvement.
Commit to consistent learning, review and reflection and you'll see your ROI increase, which in turn will help you overcome variance.
Summary
Variance doesn’t have to be your nemesis.
By increasing your volume, choosing the right tournaments and improving your ROI, you can take control of your poker journey—even as a part-time player.
Remember, variance is not a hindrance, but an opportunity to build discipline, patience, and skill.
Embrace it, because if you're in it for the long-term, you're going to have to ride some swings along the way.
That's it for this week.
See you next time.
Whenever you're ready, here's how I can help you:
The Final Table: Play your best poker when the most is at stake. Detailed analysis of over 100 hand examples at different stages of play. Learn how to make great decisions every time and set yourself up for daily progress.
Poker On The Mind: Listen to my podcast with Dr Tricia Cardner as we discuss peak poker performance and tournament poker strategy.
MTT Poker Academy: Join the tournament poker community for part-time players with full-time lives. Learn the strategies to optimise your study time and boost your ROI around your day job.
Train & Play Like The Pros: Join my signature programme that will take you from amateur to training and playing like the pros in the next 12 weeks.
Purposeful Practice for Poker: Gain a clear theoretical understanding of the science of purposeful practice and how you can apply it to your poker study & training. Includes specific exercises designed to create an infallible plan for poker improvement.
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