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OTB #069: Poker Sims Gone Wrong: Even Top Pros Are Making This Mistake


Last week I watched a training video from an elite level player on a well-known training site, that shall both remain nameless, and was gobsmacked that he made a huge error when setting up his sim in PIOSolver.


The tournament was a high roller series event and the coach had a spot in position versus the chip leader in the Big Blind.


As he flicked through the PIOSolver sim I noticed something strange...


The Big Blind was pure checking.


OK, that alone is not that strange.


But there was no option to bet. As in... he hadn't given the sim the option to donk bet!


Whaaaaaat?!


Why would he do that?


Maybe it was just an oversight on his part, but it made me realising something...


A solver is only as good as the information you feed into it.


That's the limitation of a solver too - it can only solve with the parameters that you give it.


When I first started running sims in PIOSolver I made the same mistake.


Donking wasn't a thing you were £supposed£ to do, so I didn't allow it in my sims.


Then during a study session, one of my friends told me that he discovered there were some spots where you could donk bet.


So from then on, I always allowed donk betting.


You should always give the option to donk bet because what if this is a spot where the Big blind gets to donk bet? You're going to miss out on learning.


And as the chip leader defending from the Big Blind on a final table you get to donk bet a lot more than maybe you realise.


So today I want to run through why it's so important to allow donk betting, especially for a chip leader in the Big Blind on a final table.


I'll also show you the learning that you'll miss out on if you don't.


Let's dive in...


5 left, you have the chip lead in the Big Blind


The BTN, who is 3rd of 5 player remaining raises and you defend in the Big Blind with QhTh.



If you don't allow for donks in your sim, you won't learn that you can donk bet this spot a lot.


Now you might be thinking, "Well, yeah, I already know that we get to donk bet sometimes on these types of boards."


And if that's the case, then great.


But when I say you can donk bet a lot, I mean a huge amount more than normal!


And that's because the Button has such a huge risk premium (17.1%) against the Big Blind.



The 10.77bb short stack is causing the Button all sorts of problems here.


And you can give them even more to think about by donk betting more frequently than you normally would.


Here's the postflop sim for Chip EV:



And here's the postflop ICM sim:



If you didn't allow donk betting, you'd never learn that you could donk bet this spot so much.


Same ranges for both players.


Same donk bet size.


But the Button's 17.1% risk premium against the Big Blind is allowing the latter to donk bet almost 23 times more frequently.


And it's not just the 632fd board either.


Look at the donking frequency on these other boards:



Imagine not learning that because you didn't allow for donks in your sim...


Summary


The takeaway is clear: when running your own sims, always include the option for donk bets.


A solver is only as helpful as the inputs you provide. Ignoring potential actions like donk bets might mean missing out on some key strategic insights.


Postflop ICM is one of the many lessons that I'm going to be teaching to members of MTT Poker Academy over the next few months. If you're thinking about joining, I'm going to say, "Wait until Black Friday!" because I've got something special for you coming then.


That's all for this week.


See you next time.


 

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